Pre-Season Yield Intelligence

Crop Yield Forecasting.
90 Days Ahead of USDA.

Pre-season forecasts for U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton using public weather data alone. No satellite imagery. Signals delivered before WASDE moves the market.

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Corn (ZC)Soybeans (ZS)Winter Wheat (ZW)Cotton (CT)
0.00%
Portfolio MAPE (2020–2024)
0/20
Win Rate vs. USDA
0%
More Accurate vs. USDA
$0
Weather-Only, No Satellite
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Market Problem

$760B+ A Critical 90-Day Gap in the Market,
An Intelligence Void

Each year, from the February USDA Baseline to the May WASDE, there is a ~90-day window with no quantitative yield forecast data. Traders operate on prior-year trend assumptions. LexoEye provides the only quantitative yield signal during this gap.

$760B+
Annual Market Size
Global grain market value for the four major U.S. crops
90 Days
Information Gap
No quantitative USDA outlook available before May
2~5%
Futures Price Move
Sharp market volatility on USDA report release days

USDA Information Gap Timeline

LexoEye Signal
Feb
USDA Baseline
90-Day Information Gap
No quantitative data
May
WASDE
Aug
Crop Survey

Value Chain Positioning

Farm Automation
Agmo · MetaFarmers
Market Forecasting AI
LexoEye
Procurement · Trading
POSCO · CJ · Cargill
Competitive Edge

The Giants Have Left the Market,
LexoEye Stands Alone

Former market leaders have shut down or offer incomplete coverage. LexoEye is the only platform covering all four major U.S. crops.

Company
Coverage
Status
Scale
Company A
Corn, Soybeans
Shut Down (2024)
$125M / 150
Company B
Corn, Soybeans Only
Active (Limited Coverage)
$285M Rev / 1,200
Company C
Narrow Scope
Acquired (2018)
$10-20M / 14
LexoEye
All 4 Crops ✓
Entering Market
Bootstrap / 3

4 Crops. Satellite cost $0. −33% lower error vs. USDA.

Why the Leader Failed

Company A raised $125M but failed — satellite data costs and a 150-person headcount made profitability impossible.

LexoEye's Structural Advantage

LexoEye achieves the same accuracy with free ERA5 data and a 3-person elite team. A fundamentally different cost structure.

The only pre-season signal for all four major U.S. crops

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Performance Benchmark

Superior Accuracy Without Satellite Data

5-year (2020–2024) Expanding Window validation. Outperformed USDA across all four major U.S. crops.

WIN
CornZC
1.65%
LexoEye MAPE
2.35%
USDA MAPE
Pre-Registered ✓
WIN
SoybeansZS
3.53%
LexoEye MAPE
3.59%
USDA MAPE
Pre-Registered ✓
WIN
CottonCT
4.08%
LexoEye MAPE
8.75%
USDA MAPE
Pre-Registered ✓
LOSS
Winter WheatZW
4.92%
LexoEye MAPE
4.17%
USDA MAPE
Pre-Registered ✓

Year-by-year data · Period-level signals · State-level forecasts

Full dataset available to pilot partners.

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Publicly Verified Forecasts

In 2023, LexoEye forecasts were published in the Hankook Ilbo before each USDA WASDE release. Timestamps prevent any retroactive manipulation.

📰 Pre-Published in Hankook Ilbo (2023)🔒 Published Before WASDE Release✓ Out-of-Sample✓ No Look-Ahead Bias

See how this signal works within your strategy

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Use Cases

Built for Those Who Move Markets

Pre-season yield intelligence for every participant in the agricultural commodity value chain.

Hedge Funds · AI Quant Funds

Futures Alpha

Build CBOT/ICE positions 90 days before the WASDE report. Use as an independent alpha layer uncorrelated with existing signals. Scalable from single-crop to full portfolio.

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Technology

Weather Data Only. Pre-Season Forecasts.
No Satellite Required.

Public weather data is the sole input. Forecasts are generated before planting, making future information leakage structurally impossible.

Input

ERA5-Land & PRISM

Public reanalysis weather data. Satellite cost $0.

Process

LexoEye AI Engine

County-level forecasts → area-weighted national aggregation.

Output

Yield Signal

Directly actionable for CBOT/ICE futures. Delivered months before harvest.

Trading Alpha Pipeline
Weather Data(ERA5, free & global)LexoEye AI EngineCME/ICE Trading Alpha(futures · options · spreads)
🔒

No Look-Ahead Bias

Expanding Window validation — each forecast uses only data available before the target year. Structural overfitting is impossible.

📊

Independent Signal

Uncorrelated with existing market signals. Pure supply-side intelligence derived from weather patterns, complementing demand-side data as an independent alpha source.

🌍

Globally Scalable

ERA5-Land covers the entire globe. Zero-shot transfer to African corn has been validated.

Research

Peer-Reviewed Science

Built on academic rigor, not marketing claims. Targeting peer-reviewed journal publication.

Nature Sister Journal — IF ~21.9

Weather-Based Pre-Season Yield Forecasting for Four Major U.S. Crops, Benchmarked Against USDA WASDE

Co-authored with the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seoul National University. Nature sister journal submission targeted for June.

Seoul National University CollaborationNature Sister Journal Submission Planned
4
Crops Validated
~21.9
Journal Impact Factor
15yr
Training Data Span
SNU
Corresponding Author
Market Traction

12 Responded Simultaneously Within 48 Hours

Immediately after the lexoeye.io launch, simultaneous inbound interest came from global financial and trading firms. The market is already moving.

12+
Global Financial & Trading Firms
Simultaneous responses — quant funds, trading houses, securities firms, trading companies
NDA/MOU
Signed
Live pilot underway — integrating signals into real trading strategies for validation
48hrs
Time to First Response
Time from lexoeye.io launch to first inbound inquiry
A
Executed

ASCENDAI Quant · Spring Camp Portfolio

Contract signed. Live pilot in progress — integrating LexoEye signals into actual trading strategies for validation.

Pipeline — Multiple In Progress
AI Quant FundsTrading HousesSecurities FirmsTrading CompaniesInsuranceFood Procurement

Ready to See the Signal?

Contact us about data access, pilot partnerships, or research collaboration.

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Or contact us directly: [email protected]